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Revisiting futures before training camp

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Well…if ever there was a time for the Boston Celtics to fade…

With the NBA season kicking off less than a month later, we’re entering into that period where the futures odds start to calcify into what will become the official pre-season odds we’re talking about at the end of the year when someone makes a playoff. . And despite the injury Robert Williams, the Amy Odoka scandal and the knee injury he sustained at the end of the season, Danilo Galinari, Boston remain the favorites to win the title. This is a wrong feeling.

This month is the last chance to get our future bets before the streaks start moving due to the actual results. Now, as with live betting on a game, snapping up futures as the streaks move once the season starts can yield some serious value. But wouldn’t it be so much more fun to be shot before you get a tip and you’re right?

2022-23 NBA Champions

I got my Milwaukee Bucks at +750 in June when the lines went up. This is my official pick, but as these possibilities become less exciting every day, another team with the former European best player on the front court makes the call. Denver Nuggets can be obtained at +1800. That’s a long row for a team that has Nikola Djokic and regains the second and third best player, and by the way, they reached the conference finals a few years ago.

Cleveland (+3300) is my favorite long shot on the board. Making that bet isn’t necessarily something I expect to win, but it’s like buying a season ticket to take care of the Cavs, which sounds fun.

The real residence here are Boston (+600) and the Lakers (+1600). It remains to be seen to what degree injuries and general bad vibes in the park will affect the Cetlics players, and they can beat them all together and win a slice. But I don’t care how awesome the odds are on the Lakers. Whatever you plan to bet on, just fire it up and you will have the same probability of making a profit.

2022-23 NBA MVP

He made enough money on Luka Doncic (+450) over the summer that the bet I made on him to win the MVP at the start of the season was already a bit underrated. After watching Eurobasket, it’s incredibly tempting to take part in Giannis Antetokounmpo (+525), whose books ranked third on the list. Jason Tatum (+1200) deserves the post, although I opened up telling you to fade out with the Celtics.

This situation in Boston has all the signs of a “us against the world” team, as Phoenix did last year during the investigation of Robert Sarver. I’m fading on them, but a 60-win season wouldn’t necessarily surprise me.

2022-23 Rookie of the Year

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Chet Holmgrim will miss the season, a fact that shocked the odds of picking Paulo Banchero from +350 to +180. On paper, Paolo looks like a lock. A lot of running will be done, and Orlando will be expected to be a collector right away. At +180 not worth it.

Shaedon Sharpe (+2000) was my pick when he was at +1800, but a longer shot caught my eye only this morning. Nikola Jovic (+6000) is at the bottom of the list with the likes of AJ Griffin and Walker Kessler, but he’s exactly the kind of player Miami loves. He has a high IQ, a versatile guy on a team that is developing well and will be in competition all year long. Plus there is a non-zero percent chance that at least one person will vote for him because they think he is Jokic.

2022-23 Man of the Sixth Year

Assuming he came off the bench, I’m as drawn to Anfernee Simons (+1600) as I was before the odds turned him off. There is still concern that he will be good enough that Chauncey Billups will have no choice but to start with him.

Indulge me in the game Operation Elimination. Chances are Jordan Bull (+400) isn’t tasty enough. Tyler Herro (+650) will be a repeat winner, which is a rarity for NBA season awards (though certainly less rare for this season than others). Bones Hyland (+1600) will always be on the ground with at least two better scorers than him. Shit first, think later that Joe Jordan Clarkson (+1600) spoiled his voter welcome. Cam Johnson (+1800) doesn’t score enough.

This leaves us with Simons and Malcolm Brogdon (+1400) as deserving of the top seven. I wouldn’t mind either of them, especially if the Celtics go out of the gate in F-you mode.

2022-23 Most Improved Player

My official choice remains unchanged. I took Anthony Edwards at +1100, a number that has now fallen to +900. However, the New York Knicks pair is a great proposition for me. This is important, but if the Knicks are a playoff contender next season, it will be because Jalen Brunson (+1800) and RJ Barrett (+2200) are great. And the league likes nothing more than the focus of New York in any story.

Department and Conference Winners

Like comma string betting, there is not much value here in single bets. And just like I did in making eight teams in the first round of the qualifiers last year, I will find value in all of the candidates. Investing Bucks-Nuggets-Heat-Grizzlies for everyone to win their divisions will get you something in the 700+ range. Milwaukee, Denver and Miami should qualify for the tag team titles, and the Greys are my “most likely to improve” team this year.

I’m picking Milwaukee (+350) to win the East, and Golden State (+300) to win the West. If you want longer odds, stay away from the West because I don’t think anyone but the Golden State or the healthy Clippers is the winner. But Philadelphia (+650) has the talent and star power to win any playoff series. Remember that you are making a conference championship bet, and you are saying that the team will make it to the finals. So if you can’t picture them in the finals, don’t.

And as always, play it safe and don’t chase.

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